QBE supercomputer predicts knife edge finish to Six Nations


By Sandra Villanueva – QBE Senior Media Relations Manager

Victory for England, Ireland and Wales in last weekend’s fixtures means this year’s Guinness Six Nations tournament will come right down to the wire with the overall winner almost impossible to predict, according to QBE Business Insurance catastrophe planners.

The Wales v Ireland game at the Principality Stadium is on a knife edge, with probability of either side winning almost 50:50. Despite predicting a narrow Ireland victory, the QBE rugby predictor still has Wales down as slight favourites to win the tournament overall, highlighting how difficult this weekend’s fixtures are to call.

Even with the QBE Supercomputer predicting England to beat Scotland and Wales to lose against Ireland, Wales have still been given a slight edge over England in the overall tournament predictions, due to factoring in the possibility of a Wales upset against Ireland. With England given a 42% chance and Wales a 44% chance of taking the title, the difference is negligible.

The QBE Rugby Predictor applies some of the techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods, and actuaries have used the formula to simulate the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games.

MATTHEW CRANE, Executive Director of Market Management at QBE, said:

“Anything can happen this weekend as an enthralling Six Nations tournament reaches its climax. With the crucial Wales-Ireland game predicted to be very tight, there is a range of possibilities with both Wales and England in with a shout of winning the tournament. This is a tough one to call and in the end it will come down to which team is most prepared for whatever comes their way.”

In the other game this weekend, France are expected to beat Italy 25-15, which will cap a disappointing tournament for both nations. 

UPDATED PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOURNAMENT:

Winner
England 42%
Wales 44%
Ireland 14%
Scotland 0%
France 0%
Italy 0%

Grand Slam Winner
None 57%
Wales 43%
England 0%
Ireland 0%
Scotland 0%
France 0%
Italy 0%

Triple Crown Winner
None 57%
Wales 43%
England 0%
Ireland 0%
Scotland 0%

This weekend’s predictions
Italy         15   25  France
Wales      22   24  Ireland
England   29  18  Scotland



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